--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  replication.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   5 Dec 2018, 17:15:18

. 
. foreach x in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8a 8b {
  2.         do "figure `x'"
  3. }

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. collapse ddem flip*, by(year)

. 
. keep if flipdemrep != .
(37 observations deleted)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con flipdemrep year, col(black))
>         (con fliprepdem year, col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz))
>                 legend(off)
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xtitle("Year")
>                 ytitle("Proportion of all counties")
>                 text(0.4 1972 "Flipped R{&rarr}R{&rarr}D", col(gray))
>                 text(0.25 2004 "Flipped D{&rarr}D{&rarr}R", col(black))
>                 ;

.         #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 1.pdf", replace
(file figure 1.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_anes, clear

. 
. keep if white == 1
(13,856 observations deleted)

. 
. collapse flip* votedem [aw=weight], by(year)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con flipdemrep year, col(black) msym(O))
>         (con fliprepdem year, col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 legend(off)
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xtitle("Year")
>                 xlab(1952(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 ytitle("Proportion of ANES respondents")
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz))
>                 text(0.16 2000 "Flipped R{&rarr}D", col(gray))
>                 text(0.25 1976 "Flipped D{&rarr}R", col(black))         
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 2.pdf", replace
(file figure 2.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. collapse (sum) flip*, by(year statea)

. 
. keep if year >= 1960
(102 observations deleted)

. 
. egen totalflipdemrep = sum(flipdemrep), by(year)

. egen totalfliprepdem = sum(fliprepdem), by(year)

. 
. replace flipdemrep = 0 if flipdemrep == .
(0 real changes made)

. replace fliprepdem = 0 if fliprepdem == .
(0 real changes made)

. 
. gen key = inlist(statea, "OH", "IA", "WI", "PA", "MI")

. keep if key == 1
(737 observations deleted)

. 
. egen regionflipdemrep = sum(flipdemrep), by(year)

. egen regionfliprepdem = sum(fliprepdem), by(year)

. 
. *** figure 3a ***
. 
. local j = 1

. levelsof statea, local(levels)
`"IA"' `"MI"' `"OH"' `"PA"' `"WI"'

. foreach state of local levels {
  2. 
.         local text1 text(65 1988 "R{&rarr}R{&rarr}D", col(gray))
  3.         local text2 text(42 2000 "D{&rarr}D{&rarr}R", col(black))
  4.         if `j' > 1 local text1
  5.         if `j' > 1 local text2
  6. 
.         #delimit;
delimiter now ;
.         gr tw
>                 (con flipdemrep year if statea == "`state'", col(black))
>                 (con fliprepdem year if statea == "`state'", col(gray) msym(s)
> )
>                 ,
>                         xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                         ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                         legend(off)
>                         plotregion(style(none))
>                         xtitle("")
>                         ytitle("")
>                         nodraw
>                         name(g`j', replace)
>                         title("`state'")
>                         `text1'
>                         `text2'
>                         ;
  7.                 #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
.         
.         local mygraphs `mygraphs' g`j'
  8.         
.         local j = `j' + 1
  9.         
. }

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con regionflipdemrep year if statea == "MI", col(black))
>         (con regionfliprepdem year if statea == "MI", col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                 legend(off)
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xtitle("")
>                 ytitle("")
>                 nodraw
>                 name(g`j', replace)
>                 title("Combined")
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. local mygraphs `mygraphs' g`j'

. 
. gr combine g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6, xcommon l1title("Number of counties") ///
>         b1title("Year") imargin(zero) ysize(2) xsize(5.5)

. gr export "figure 3a.pdf", replace
(file figure 3a.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. *** figure 3b ***
. 
. gen totalflip = totalflipdemrep + totalfliprepdem

. gen flip = (flipdemrep + fliprepdem)/totalflip

. 
. replace flipdemrep = flipdemrep / totalflipdemrep
(45 real changes made, 10 to missing)

. replace fliprepdem = fliprepdem / totalfliprepdem
(37 real changes made)

. 
. replace regionflipdemrep = regionflipdemrep / totalflipdemrep
(55 real changes made, 10 to missing)

. replace regionfliprepdem = regionfliprepdem / totalfliprepdem
(50 real changes made)

. 
. local j = 1

. levelsof statea, local(levels)
`"IA"' `"MI"' `"OH"' `"PA"' `"WI"'

. foreach state of local levels {
  2. 
.         #delimit;
delimiter now ;
.         gr tw
>                 (con flipdemrep year if statea == "`state'", col(black))
>                 (con fliprepdem year if statea == "`state'", col(gray) msym(s)
> )
>                 ,
>                         xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                         ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                         legend(off)
>                         plotregion(style(none))
>                         xtitle("")
>                         ytitle("")
>                         nodraw
>                         name(g`j', replace)
>                         title("`state'")
>                         ;
  3.                 #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
.         
.         local mygraphs `mygraphs' g`j'
  4.         
.         local j = `j' + 1
  5.         
. }

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con regionflipdemrep year if statea == "MI", col(black))
>         (con regionfliprepdem year if statea == "MI", col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                 legend(off)
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xtitle("")
>                 ytitle("")
>                 nodraw
>                 name(g`j', replace)
>                 title("Combined")
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. local mygraphs `mygraphs' g`j'

. 
. gr combine g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6, xcommon l1title("Proportion of all counties") //
> /
>         b1title("Year") imargin(zero) ysize(2) xsize(5.5)

. 
. gr export "figure 3b.pdf", replace
(file figure 3b.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. *** figure 3c ***
. 
. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. gen flipvotes = demvotes + repvotes if flipdemrep == 1 | fliprepdem == 1 
(161,309 missing values generated)

. 
. collapse (sum) flipvotes demvotes repvotes, by(year statea)

. 
. gen flipshare = flipvotes / (demvotes + repvotes)
(83 missing values generated)

. keep if year >= 1960
(102 observations deleted)

. 
. gen key = inlist(statea, "OH", "IA", "WI", "PA", "MI")

. keep if key == 1
(737 observations deleted)

. 
. local j = 1

. levelsof statea, local(levels)
`"IA"' `"MI"' `"OH"' `"PA"' `"WI"'

. foreach state of local levels {
  2. 
.         #delimit;
delimiter now ;
.         gr tw
>                 (con flipshare year if statea == "`state'", col(black))
>                 ,
>                         xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                         ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                         legend(off)
>                         plotregion(style(none))
>                         xtitle("")
>                         ytitle("")
>                         nodraw
>                         name(g`j', replace)
>                         title("`state'")
>                         ;
  3.                 #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
.         
.         local mygraphs `mygraphs' g`j'
  4.         
.         local j = `j' + 1
  5.         
. }

. 
. gr combine g1 g2 g3 g4 g5, xcommon l1title("Proportion of all votes") ///
>         b1title("Year") imargin(zero) ysize(2) xsize(5.5)

. 
. gr export "figure 3c.pdf", replace
(file figure 3c.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
.                 
.                 
. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. sort fips year

. 
. gen myline = 50

. 
. foreach y in 1964 1972 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 {
  2. 
.         di `y'
  3.         
.         if `y' == 1964 | `y' == 1976 | `y' == 1992 | `y' == 2008 local flip fl
> iprepdem 
  4.         if `y' == 1972 | `y' == 1984 | `y' == 2000 | `y' == 2016 local flip
>  flipdemrep
  5. 
.         egen flipm = mean(`flip') if year == `y', by(fips)
  6.         egen flip = mean(flipm), by(fips)
  7. 
.         #delimit;
delimiter now ;
.         xtline demvoteshare if flip == 1
>         , 
>                 t(year) i(fips) overlay
>                 legend(off)
>                 title(`y', size(huge))
>                 xlab(1952(8)2016, angle(45) labsize(vlarge))
>                 ylab(0(20)100, angle(horiz) labsize(vlarge))
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xtitle("")
>                 ytitle("")
>                 xline(`y', lwid(medthick) lpat(dash) lcol(black))
>                 addplot(scatteri 50 1952 50 2016, recast(line) col(black)
>                         lpat(solid) lpat(dash) lwid(medthick))
>                         ;
  8.                                 #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
.         drop flip flipm
  9.         
.         gr export "figure 4 `y'.pdf", replace
 10.         
.         serset clear
 11. 
. }
1964
(165098 missing values generated)
(7610 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 1964.pdf written in PDF format)
1972
(165097 missing values generated)
(7558 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 1972.pdf written in PDF format)
1976
(165097 missing values generated)
(7558 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 1976.pdf written in PDF format)
1984
(165092 missing values generated)
(7298 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 1984.pdf written in PDF format)
1992
(165083 missing values generated)
(6830 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 1992.pdf written in PDF format)
2000
(165080 missing values generated)
(6674 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 2000.pdf written in PDF format)
2008
(165082 missing values generated)
(6778 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 2008.pdf written in PDF format)
2016
(165086 missing values generated)
(6986 missing values generated)
(file figure 4 2016.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. keep if year >= 1972
(22,098 observations deleted)

. drop if mi(statea) | mi(pctcollege) | mi(demvoteshare)
(108,843 observations deleted)

. 
. egen sdpctcollege = sd(pctcollege), by(year)

. egen minpctcollege = min(pctcollege), by(year statea)

. egen maxpctcollege = max(pctcollege), by(year statea)

. replace pctcollege = (pctcollege - minpctcollege) / (maxpctcollege - minpctcol
> lege)
(37,238 real changes made)

. 
. gen y = demvoteshare

. 
. su pctcollege if year == 2016 [aw=pop], det

                         pctcollege
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%     .0167649              0
 5%     .1244597              0
10%     .1760817              0       Obs               3,108
25%     .3383334              0       Sum of Wgt.   207480914

50%     .4910469                      Mean           .5181606
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      .2528652
75%     .6712311              1
90%     .9128482              1       Variance       .0639408
95%            1              1       Skewness       .1984183
99%            1              1       Kurtosis       2.353484

.  
. gen B = .
(37,245 missing values generated)

. gen A = .
(37,245 missing values generated)

. gen Bstate = .
(37,245 missing values generated)

. gen Astate = .
(37,245 missing values generated)

. levelsof year, local(levels)
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

. foreach l of local levels {
  2.         reg y pctcollege if year == `l' [aw=pop]
  3.         replace B = _b[pctcollege] if year == `l'
  4.         replace A = _b[_cons] if year == `l'
  5. }
(sum of wgt is 104,460,240)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,097
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3095)      =     35.76
       Model |  4330.24787         1  4330.24787   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  374811.667     3,095  121.102316   R-squared       =    0.0114
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0111
       Total |  379141.915     3,096  122.461859   Root MSE        =    11.005

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   4.979344   .8327066     5.98   0.000     3.346631    6.612057
       _cons |   35.92051   .3810985    94.26   0.000     35.17328    36.66774
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,097 real changes made)
(3,097 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 104,329,762)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,095
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3093)      =    136.49
       Model |  10625.2817         1  10625.2817   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  240787.735     3,093  77.8492514   R-squared       =    0.0423
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0420
       Total |  251413.016     3,094   81.258247   Root MSE        =    8.8232

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   -7.80384   .6679829   -11.68   0.000    -9.113575   -6.494105
       _cons |   54.44402   .3053024   178.33   0.000      53.8454    55.04263
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,095 real changes made)
(3,095 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 127,271,332)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,104
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3102)      =     16.75
       Model |  1770.28412         1  1770.28412   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  327766.276     3,102  105.662887   R-squared       =    0.0054
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0051
       Total |   329536.56     3,103  106.199342   Root MSE        =    10.279

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -2.972452   .7261973    -4.09   0.000    -4.396329   -1.548576
       _cons |   45.97387   .3497965   131.43   0.000     45.28801    46.65972
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,104 real changes made)
(3,104 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 127,271,332)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,104
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3102)      =      4.36
       Model |  483.045022         1  483.045022   Prob > F        =    0.0369
    Residual |  343815.927     3,102  110.836856   R-squared       =    0.0014
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0011
       Total |  344298.972     3,103  110.956807   Root MSE        =    10.528

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.552699   .7437646     2.09   0.037     .0943779     3.01102
       _cons |   39.97865   .3582583   111.59   0.000     39.27621     40.6811
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,104 real changes made)
(3,104 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 127,221,953)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,103
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3101)      =      0.32
       Model |  34.8053806         1  34.8053806   Prob > F        =    0.5736
    Residual |  340680.636     3,101   109.86154   R-squared       =    0.0001
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0002
       Total |  340715.441     3,102  109.837344   Root MSE        =    10.481

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   .4168309   .7405588     0.56   0.574    -1.035204    1.868866
       _cons |    45.9953   .3567715   128.92   0.000     45.29576    46.69483
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,103 real changes made)
(3,103 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 152,526,508)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,106
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3104)      =      0.01
       Model |  1.16945337         1  1.16945337   Prob > F        =    0.9197
    Residual |  357278.027     3,104  115.102457   R-squared       =    0.0000
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0003
       Total |  357279.196     3,105  115.065764   Root MSE        =    10.729

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -.0742388   .7365154    -0.10   0.920    -1.518346    1.369868
       _cons |    53.1032    .397723   133.52   0.000     52.32338    53.88303
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,106 real changes made)
(3,106 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 152,526,508)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,106
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3104)      =      5.36
       Model |  696.215046         1  696.215046   Prob > F        =    0.0206
    Residual |  402972.126     3,104  129.823494   R-squared       =    0.0017
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0014
       Total |  403668.341     3,105  130.005907   Root MSE        =    11.394

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.811387   .7821971     2.32   0.021     .2777109    3.345063
       _cons |   53.88025   .4223914   127.56   0.000     53.05205    54.70844
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,106 real changes made)
(3,106 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 176,716,444)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,107
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3105)      =     90.95
       Model |  14579.2959         1  14579.2959   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  497728.851     3,105  160.299147   R-squared       =    0.0285
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0281
       Total |  512308.147     3,106  164.941451   Root MSE        =    12.661

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   8.298023   .8701056     9.54   0.000     6.591982    10.00406
       _cons |   46.05943   .4729178    97.39   0.000     45.13217    46.98669
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,107 real changes made)
(3,107 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 176,713,334)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,106
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3104)      =    209.05
       Model |  35430.8142         1  35430.8142   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  526080.032     3,104  169.484547   R-squared       =    0.0631
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0628
       Total |  561510.847     3,105  180.840852   Root MSE        =    13.019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   12.93822   .8948476    14.46   0.000     11.18367    14.69278
       _cons |   42.43036   .4863698    87.24   0.000     41.47672    43.38399
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,106 real changes made)
(3,106 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 176,682,950)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,104
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3102)      =    278.76
       Model |  52067.4818         1  52067.4818   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  579402.674     3,102  186.783583   R-squared       =    0.0825
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0822
       Total |  631470.156     3,103  203.503112   Root MSE        =    13.667

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   15.68916   .9396928    16.70   0.000     13.84668    17.53165
       _cons |   46.00943   .5107575    90.08   0.000     45.00797    47.01088
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,104 real changes made)
(3,104 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 202,943,915)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,105
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3103)      =    219.00
       Model |  47877.8735         1  47877.8735   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  678366.513     3,103  218.616343   R-squared       =    0.0659
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0656
       Total |  726244.386     3,104  233.970485   Root MSE        =    14.786

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   15.50524   1.047737    14.80   0.000     13.45091    17.55957
       _cons |   43.32621   .6046115    71.66   0.000     42.14073    44.51169
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,105 real changes made)
(3,105 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 207,480,914)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     3,108
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 3106)      =    572.84
       Model |  159019.918         1  159019.918   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  862219.954     3,106  277.598182   R-squared       =    0.1557
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1554
       Total |  1021239.87     3,107  328.690014   Root MSE        =    16.661

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   28.29215   1.182085    23.93   0.000     25.97441     30.6099
       _cons |   36.57347   .6815317    53.66   0.000     35.23718    37.90977
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3,108 real changes made)
(3,108 real changes made)

. keep if key == 1
(32,337 observations deleted)

. 
. levelsof statea, local(states)
`"IA"' `"MI"' `"OH"' `"PA"' `"WI"'

. levelsof year, local(levels)
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

. foreach s of local states {
  2.         foreach l of local levels {
  3.                 reg y pctcollege if year == `l' & statea == "`s'" [aw=pop]
  4.                 replace Bstate = _b[pctcollege] if year == `l' & statea == 
> "`s'"
  5.                 replace Astate = _b[_cons] if year == `l' & statea == "`s'"
  6.         }
  7. }
(sum of wgt is 1,540,588)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     38.41
       Model |  1173.87587         1  1173.87587   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |   2964.7504        97  30.5644372   R-squared       =    0.2836
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.2763
       Total |  4138.62628        98  42.2308804   Root MSE        =    5.5285

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   20.08932   3.241622     6.20   0.000      13.6556    26.52304
       _cons |   36.38389   .9148171    39.77   0.000     34.56823    38.19955
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,540,588)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =      2.24
       Model |  63.8941833         1  63.8941833   Prob > F        =    0.1375
    Residual |  2763.85489        97  28.4933493   R-squared       =    0.0226
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0125
       Total |  2827.74907        98  28.8545823   Root MSE        =    5.3379

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |    4.68689   3.129867     1.50   0.138    -1.525029    10.89881
       _cons |   48.34849   .8832788    54.74   0.000     46.59543    50.10156
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,700,102)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     42.37
       Model |  1462.17457         1  1462.17457   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  3347.07037        97  34.5058801   R-squared       =    0.3040
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.2969
       Total |  4809.24494        98   49.073928   Root MSE        =    5.8742

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   20.21979   3.106158     6.51   0.000     14.05493    26.38466
       _cons |   38.11758   .9294773    41.01   0.000     36.27282    39.96233
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,700,102)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     19.09
       Model |  784.948781         1  784.948781   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  3988.05764        97  41.1139963   R-squared       =    0.1645
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1558
       Total |  4773.00642        98  48.7041471   Root MSE        =     6.412

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   14.81487   3.390564     4.37   0.000     8.085535     21.5442
       _cons |   42.53226   1.014582    41.92   0.000      40.5186    44.54593
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,700,102)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     10.82
       Model |  455.239763         1  455.239763   Prob > F        =    0.0014
    Residual |  4081.32486        97   42.075514   R-squared       =    0.1003
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0911
       Total |  4536.56462        98  46.2914757   Root MSE        =    6.4866

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   11.28229   3.429981     3.29   0.001     4.474723    18.08985
       _cons |   52.23363   1.026377    50.89   0.000     50.19656    54.27071
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,776,798)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     11.53
       Model |  535.786094         1  535.786094   Prob > F        =    0.0010
    Residual |  4508.11887        97  46.4754522   R-squared       =    0.1062
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0970
       Total |  5043.90496        98   51.468418   Root MSE        =    6.8173

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   10.67233   3.143225     3.40   0.001     4.433902    16.91077
       _cons |    49.7318   1.297639    38.32   0.000     47.15635    52.30726
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,776,798)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     11.30
       Model |  514.739772         1  514.739772   Prob > F        =    0.0011
    Residual |  4417.74079        97  45.5437195   R-squared       =    0.1044
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0951
       Total |  4932.48056        98  50.3314343   Root MSE        =    6.7486

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   10.46062   3.111558     3.36   0.001     4.285041    16.63621
       _cons |   51.88815   1.284566    40.39   0.000     49.33864    54.43766
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,895,856)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     16.01
       Model |  746.975956         1  746.975956   Prob > F        =    0.0001
    Residual |  4525.52552        97  46.6549022   R-squared       =    0.1417
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1328
       Total |  5272.50147        98  53.8010354   Root MSE        =    6.8304

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   10.23191   2.557126     4.00   0.000     5.156725     15.3071
       _cons |   46.28828   1.159016    39.94   0.000     43.98795     48.5886
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,895,856)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     19.24
       Model |  1002.99747         1  1002.99747   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  5056.43485        97  52.1281944   R-squared       =    0.1655
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1569
       Total |  6059.43232        98  61.8309421   Root MSE        =      7.22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   11.85642   2.702962     4.39   0.000     6.491786    17.22105
       _cons |   45.04743   1.225116    36.77   0.000     42.61591    47.47894
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 1,895,856)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     24.86
       Model |  1229.13816         1  1229.13816   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  4795.71548        97  49.4403658   R-squared       =    0.2040
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1958
       Total |  6024.85365        98  61.4780984   Root MSE        =    7.0314

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   13.12514   2.632354     4.99   0.000     7.900643    18.34963
       _cons |    49.6174   1.193113    41.59   0.000      47.2494     51.9854
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,038,942)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =     15.03
       Model |  942.117388         1  942.117388   Prob > F        =    0.0002
    Residual |  6079.68626        97  62.6771779   R-squared       =    0.1342
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1252
       Total |  7021.80365        98  71.6510576   Root MSE        =    7.9169

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   14.25352   3.676414     3.88   0.000     6.956859    21.55019
       _cons |   46.45379   1.795243    25.88   0.000     42.89073    50.01685
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,038,942)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        99
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 97)        =    108.48
       Model |  7074.06803         1  7074.06803   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  6325.17147        97  65.2079533   R-squared       =    0.5279
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.5231
       Total |  13399.2395        98  136.726934   Root MSE        =    8.0751

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   39.05749   3.749903    10.42   0.000     31.61497    46.50001
       _cons |   27.29319   1.831128    14.91   0.000      23.6589    30.92747
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(99 real changes made)
(99 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 4,594,461)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      0.25
       Model |  20.1878596         1  20.1878596   Prob > F        =    0.6205
    Residual |  6616.85113        81  81.6895201   R-squared       =    0.0030
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0093
       Total |  6637.03899        82  80.9394999   Root MSE        =    9.0382

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -2.668344   5.367596    -0.50   0.620    -13.34818    8.011489
       _cons |   43.74922   1.730857    25.28   0.000     40.30536    47.19308
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 4,594,461)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      8.28
       Model |  772.835455         1  772.835455   Prob > F        =    0.0051
    Residual |  7557.02054        81  93.2965499   R-squared       =    0.0928
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0816
       Total |    8329.856        82   101.58361   Root MSE        =     9.659

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -16.50974   5.736268    -2.88   0.005    -27.92311   -5.096364
       _cons |   52.96321    1.84974    28.63   0.000      49.2828    56.64361
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,254,040)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      3.68
       Model |  392.162692         1  392.162692   Prob > F        =    0.0587
    Residual |  8636.78288        81  106.626949   R-squared       =    0.0434
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0316
       Total |  9028.94558        82  110.109092   Root MSE        =    10.326

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -10.22659   5.332503    -1.92   0.059     -20.8366    .3834204
       _cons |   49.72047   1.845056    26.95   0.000     46.04939    53.39156
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,254,040)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      2.66
       Model |  340.755501         1  340.755501   Prob > F        =    0.1070
    Residual |  10388.9165        81  128.258228   R-squared       =    0.0318
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0198
       Total |   10729.672        82  130.849658   Root MSE        =    11.325

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -9.532768   5.848442    -1.63   0.107    -21.16933    2.103798
       _cons |   43.69219   2.023572    21.59   0.000     39.66592    47.71847
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,254,040)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      4.30
       Model |  456.739631         1  456.739631   Prob > F        =    0.0414
    Residual |  8612.26106        81  106.324211   R-squared       =    0.0504
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0386
       Total |  9069.00069        82  110.597569   Root MSE        =    10.311

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -11.03651   5.324927    -2.07   0.041    -21.63145   -.4415797
       _cons |   50.14824   1.842435    27.22   0.000     46.48237    53.81411
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,842,642)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      8.19
       Model |  846.857056         1  846.857056   Prob > F        =    0.0054
    Residual |  8374.81886        81  103.392825   R-squared       =    0.0918
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0806
       Total |  9221.67591        82  112.459462   Root MSE        =    10.168

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -12.24743   4.279423    -2.86   0.005    -20.76214   -3.732724
       _cons |   59.89216   2.059855    29.08   0.000      55.7937    63.99063
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,842,642)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      8.20
       Model |  923.545192         1  923.545192   Prob > F        =    0.0053
    Residual |  9126.86313        81  112.677323   R-squared       =    0.0919
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0807
       Total |  10050.4083        82  122.565955   Root MSE        =    10.615

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -12.78996   4.467436    -2.86   0.005    -21.67875   -3.901162
       _cons |   63.39427   2.150352    29.48   0.000     59.11575     67.6728
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,415,941)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      2.28
       Model |  286.539797         1  286.539797   Prob > F        =    0.1350
    Residual |  10185.0375        81  125.741204   R-squared       =    0.0274
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0154
       Total |  10471.5773        82  127.702162   Root MSE        =    11.213

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   -6.77091   4.485319    -1.51   0.135    -15.69529    2.153469
       _cons |   56.09679   2.336061    24.01   0.000     51.44877    60.74482
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,415,941)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      0.89
       Model |  112.499436         1  112.499436   Prob > F        =    0.3488
    Residual |  10261.1272        81  126.680583   R-squared       =    0.0108
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0014
       Total |  10373.6266        82  126.507642   Root MSE        =    11.255

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -4.242577   4.502042    -0.94   0.349    -13.20023    4.715075
       _cons |   54.16813   2.344771    23.10   0.000     49.50277    58.83348
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,415,941)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      0.14
       Model |  15.8190349         1  15.8190349   Prob > F        =    0.7054
    Residual |  8903.07999        81  109.914568   R-squared       =    0.0018
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0106
       Total |  8918.89903        82  108.767061   Root MSE        =    10.484

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -1.590906   4.193553    -0.38   0.705    -9.934762     6.75295
       _cons |   59.51056   2.184102    27.25   0.000     55.16488    63.85623
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,619,834)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      0.20
       Model |  25.8776468         1  25.8776468   Prob > F        =    0.6581
    Residual |  10623.9848        81  131.160306   R-squared       =    0.0024
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0099
       Total |  10649.8624        82  129.876371   Root MSE        =    11.453

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -2.038037   4.588289    -0.44   0.658    -11.16729     7.09122
       _cons |   55.81601   2.742899    20.35   0.000     50.35851    61.27352
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,619,834)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        83
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 81)        =      6.98
       Model |  1142.86079         1  1142.86079   Prob > F        =    0.0099
    Residual |  13267.8666        81  163.800822   R-squared       =    0.0793
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0679
       Total |  14410.7273        82  175.740577   Root MSE        =    12.798

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   13.54398   5.127523     2.64   0.010     3.341816    23.74614
       _cons |   42.56892   3.065255    13.89   0.000     36.47003    48.66782
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(83 real changes made)
(83 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,700,317)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      6.07
       Model |    374.3518         1    374.3518   Prob > F        =    0.0157
    Residual |  5299.99626        86  61.6278635   R-squared       =    0.0660
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0551
       Total |  5674.34806        87  65.2223915   Root MSE        =    7.8503

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   7.969203    3.23343     2.46   0.016     1.541357    14.39705
       _cons |    34.7463   1.928523    18.02   0.000     30.91252    38.58008
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 5,700,317)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      1.42
       Model |  83.7925045         1  83.7925045   Prob > F        =    0.2372
    Residual |  5085.96069        86  59.1390778   R-squared       =    0.0162
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0048
       Total |  5169.75319        87  59.4224505   Root MSE        =    7.6902

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -3.770314   3.167468    -1.19   0.237    -10.06703    2.526404
       _cons |   52.40225   1.889181    27.74   0.000     48.64668    56.15782
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,291,667)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      1.78
       Model |  108.891934         1  108.891934   Prob > F        =    0.1853
    Residual |  5251.88019        86  61.0683743   R-squared       =    0.0203
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0089
       Total |  5360.77212        87  61.6180704   Root MSE        =    7.8146

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   4.154327   3.111079     1.34   0.185    -2.030293    10.33895
       _cons |   42.22102   1.828233    23.09   0.000     38.58661    45.85543
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,291,667)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      0.95
       Model |  112.701886         1  112.701886   Prob > F        =    0.3314
    Residual |  10159.3688        86  118.132195   R-squared       =    0.0110
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0005
       Total |  10272.0706        87  118.069778   Root MSE        =    10.869

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   4.226379   4.327001     0.98   0.331    -4.375414    12.82817
       _cons |   38.37119   2.542772    15.09   0.000     33.31633    43.42605
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,291,667)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      0.10
       Model |  10.7839835         1  10.7839835   Prob > F        =    0.7581
    Residual |  9715.60931        86  112.972201   R-squared       =    0.0011
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0105
       Total |   9726.3933        87  111.797624   Root MSE        =    10.629

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.307352   4.231444     0.31   0.758    -7.104481    9.719185
       _cons |   44.24946   2.486618    17.80   0.000     39.30622    49.19269
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,924,764)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      0.00
       Model |  .121923318         1  .121923318   Prob > F        =    0.9725
    Residual |  8797.85268        86  102.300613   R-squared       =    0.0000
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0116
       Total |   8797.9746        87  101.126145   Root MSE        =    10.114

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   -.146922   4.255813    -0.03   0.973    -8.607199    8.313355
       _cons |   51.35172   2.602198    19.73   0.000     46.17872    56.52472
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,924,764)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      0.01
       Model |  .855339421         1  .855339421   Prob > F        =    0.9257
    Residual |  8397.97267        86  97.6508449   R-squared       =    0.0001
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0115
       Total |    8398.828        87  96.5382529   Root MSE        =    9.8818

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   .3891461   4.157971     0.09   0.926    -7.876627    8.654919
       _cons |   53.87742   2.542373    21.19   0.000     48.82335    58.93149
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,411,740)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      2.45
       Model |  271.197108         1  271.197108   Prob > F        =    0.1212
    Residual |  9521.19969        86  110.711624   R-squared       =    0.0277
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0164
       Total |  9792.39679        87  112.556285   Root MSE        =    10.522

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   9.123028   5.828987     1.57   0.121    -2.464615    20.71067
       _cons |    44.6837   2.611911    17.11   0.000     39.49139      49.876
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,411,740)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      6.65
       Model |  816.017787         1  816.017787   Prob > F        =    0.0116
    Residual |  10553.1864        86   122.71147   R-squared       =    0.0718
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0610
       Total |  11369.2042        87  130.680508   Root MSE        =    11.078

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   15.82509   6.136759     2.58   0.012     3.625621    28.02457
       _cons |   42.79983    2.74982    15.56   0.000     37.33337    48.26629
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,411,740)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =     12.88
       Model |  1400.55506         1  1400.55506   Prob > F        =    0.0006
    Residual |  9352.47449        86  108.749703   R-squared       =    0.1302
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1201
       Total |  10753.0295        87  123.598041   Root MSE        =    10.428

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   20.73226   5.777109     3.59   0.001     9.247745    32.21677
       _cons |   44.24662   2.588664    17.09   0.000     39.10052    49.39271
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,781,111)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =      7.44
       Model |  1011.17474         1  1011.17474   Prob > F        =    0.0077
    Residual |  11690.5379        86  135.936487   R-squared       =    0.0796
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0689
       Total |  12701.7126        87  145.996697   Root MSE        =    11.659

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   17.86218   6.549216     2.73   0.008     4.842767    30.88159
       _cons |   44.21335   2.887936    15.31   0.000     38.47233    49.95438
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,781,111)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        88
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 86)        =     45.36
       Model |   6779.5139         1   6779.5139   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  12854.1494        86  149.466853   R-squared       =    0.3453
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.3377
       Total |  19633.6633        87  225.674291   Root MSE        =    12.226

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   46.25094   6.867422     6.73   0.000     32.59896    59.90292
       _cons |   27.03843   3.028252     8.93   0.000     21.01846    33.05839
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(88 real changes made)
(88 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,689,938)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      2.08
       Model |  179.685568         1  179.685568   Prob > F        =    0.1541
    Residual |  5616.39538        65  86.4060827   R-squared       =    0.0310
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0161
       Total |  5796.08094        66  87.8194082   Root MSE        =    9.2955

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -9.461696   6.561219    -1.44   0.154    -22.56536    3.641964
       _cons |   42.67274    2.39826    17.79   0.000     37.88308    47.46239
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 6,689,938)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =     12.07
       Model |  940.563602         1  940.563602   Prob > F        =    0.0009
    Residual |  5065.33503        65  77.9282313   R-squared       =    0.1566
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1436
       Total |  6005.89863        66  90.9984642   Root MSE        =    8.8277

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -21.64744    6.23103    -3.47   0.001    -34.09166   -9.203212
       _cons |   58.52511   2.277569    25.70   0.000     53.97649    63.07373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,240,244)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      6.80
       Model |  735.553202         1  735.553202   Prob > F        =    0.0113
    Residual |  7027.37807        65  108.113509   R-squared       =    0.0948
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0808
       Total |  7762.93127        66  117.620171   Root MSE        =    10.398

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -14.35093   5.501905    -2.61   0.011      -25.339   -3.362871
       _cons |   50.74429   2.341985    21.67   0.000     46.06702    55.42156
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,240,244)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      4.02
       Model |  643.163792         1  643.163792   Prob > F        =    0.0490
    Residual |  10387.2069        65  159.803183   R-squared       =    0.0583
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0438
       Total |  11030.3707        66  167.126828   Root MSE        =    12.641

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -13.41943   6.689072    -2.01   0.049    -26.77842   -.0604271
       _cons |   50.47082   2.847324    17.73   0.000     44.78432    56.15732
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,240,244)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      4.35
       Model |  655.193257         1  655.193257   Prob > F        =    0.0409
    Residual |   9783.4809        65  150.515091   R-squared       =    0.0628
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0483
       Total |  10438.6742        66   158.16173   Root MSE        =    12.268

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -13.54434    6.49177    -2.09   0.041     -26.5093    -.579379
       _cons |   53.76139   2.763339    19.46   0.000     48.24262    59.28016
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,872,932)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      0.95
       Model |   140.71783         1   140.71783   Prob > F        =    0.3344
    Residual |  9669.54357        65  148.762209   R-squared       =    0.0143
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0008
       Total |   9810.2614        66  148.640324   Root MSE        =    12.197

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -6.100531   6.272482    -0.97   0.334    -18.62754    6.426479
       _cons |   57.37172   2.789106    20.57   0.000     51.80149    62.94195
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 7,872,932)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      0.93
       Model |  156.005073         1  156.005073   Prob > F        =    0.3372
    Residual |  10845.9404        65  166.860622   R-squared       =    0.0142
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0010
       Total |  11001.9455        66  166.696144   Root MSE        =    12.917

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -6.423363   6.643088    -0.97   0.337    -19.69053      6.8438
       _cons |   57.76694   2.953899    19.56   0.000      51.8676    63.66629
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 8,266,284)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      0.02
       Model |   4.7298582         1   4.7298582   Prob > F        =    0.8762
    Residual |  12578.3004        65  193.512313   R-squared       =    0.0004
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0150
       Total |  12583.0302        66  190.651973   Root MSE        =    13.911

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |    1.13297   7.246842     0.16   0.876    -13.33997    15.60591
       _cons |   51.39119   3.358472    15.30   0.000     44.68386    58.09852
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 8,266,284)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      0.65
       Model |  123.477394         1  123.477394   Prob > F        =    0.4246
    Residual |  12430.2006        65  191.233856   R-squared       =    0.0098
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0054
       Total |   12553.678        66  190.207243   Root MSE        =    13.829

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   5.788796   7.204053     0.80   0.425    -8.598691    20.17628
       _cons |   48.64101   3.338642    14.57   0.000     41.97329    55.30874
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 8,266,284)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      1.24
       Model |  214.686987         1  214.686987   Prob > F        =    0.2700
    Residual |  11274.6973        65  173.456882   R-squared       =    0.0187
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0036
       Total |  11489.3843        66   174.08158   Root MSE        =     13.17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   7.633037   6.861045     1.11   0.270    -6.069416    21.33549
       _cons |   51.62744   3.179678    16.24   0.000     45.27719     57.9777
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 8,764,740)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =      2.22
       Model |  507.505151         1  507.505151   Prob > F        =    0.1410
    Residual |  14854.8778        65  228.536581   R-squared       =    0.0330
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0182
       Total |  15362.3829        66  232.763378   Root MSE        =    15.117

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   12.60664   8.459741     1.49   0.141    -4.288627    29.50191
       _cons |   45.97729   4.438859    10.36   0.000     37.11227     54.8423
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 8,764,740)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        67
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 65)        =     11.96
       Model |  3154.29021         1  3154.29021   Prob > F        =    0.0010
    Residual |  17148.9514        65  263.830021   R-squared       =    0.1554
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1424
       Total |  20303.2416        66  307.624872   Root MSE        =    16.243

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   31.42896   9.089527     3.46   0.001     13.27592      49.582
       _cons |   33.72225   4.769311     7.07   0.000     24.19728    43.24722
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(67 real changes made)
(67 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,329,796)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =     16.79
       Model |  139.157879         1  139.157879   Prob > F        =    0.0001
    Residual |  580.327749        70  8.29039641   R-squared       =    0.1934
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1819
       Total |  719.485627        71  10.1336004   Root MSE        =    2.8793

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   6.826842   1.666302     4.10   0.000     3.503508    10.15018
       _cons |   62.89918   .6778734    92.79   0.000      61.5472    64.25115
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,329,796)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.09
       Model |  3.83942271         1  3.83942271   Prob > F        =    0.7630
    Residual |  2933.39434        70  41.9056335   R-squared       =    0.0013
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0130
       Total |  2937.23377        71  41.3694897   Root MSE        =    6.4735

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.133963   3.746296     0.30   0.763     -6.33779    8.605716
       _cons |   50.69809   1.524043    33.27   0.000     47.65849     53.7377
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,705,388)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      8.38
       Model |  511.507046         1  511.507046   Prob > F        =    0.0051
    Residual |  4272.99966        70  61.0428523   R-squared       =    0.1069
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0942
       Total |  4784.50671        71  67.3874184   Root MSE        =     7.813

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |    14.0707   4.860796     2.89   0.005     4.376151    23.76526
       _cons |   41.10472   2.382447    17.25   0.000     36.35308    45.85636
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,705,388)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      5.76
       Model |  466.975625         1  466.975625   Prob > F        =    0.0191
    Residual |  5675.68143        70  81.0811632   R-squared       =    0.0760
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0628
       Total |  6142.65705        71  86.5162965   Root MSE        =    9.0045

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   13.44427   5.602089     2.40   0.019     2.271253    24.61728
       _cons |   39.19002    2.74578    14.27   0.000     33.71374    44.66631
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 2,705,388)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      2.66
       Model |  166.752921         1  166.752921   Prob > F        =    0.1077
    Residual |  4395.37096        70  62.7910138   R-squared       =    0.0366
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0228
       Total |  4562.12388        71   64.255266   Root MSE        =    7.9241

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   8.033906   4.929908     1.63   0.108    -1.798484     17.8663
       _cons |   48.25267    2.41632    19.97   0.000     43.43347    53.07187
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,094,226)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.00
       Model |  .386232723         1  .386232723   Prob > F        =    0.9449
    Residual |  5629.63666        70  80.4233809   R-squared       =    0.0001
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0142
       Total |   5630.0229        71  79.2960971   Root MSE        =    8.9679

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -.3179205   4.587596    -0.07   0.945    -9.467593    8.831752
       _cons |   52.86422   2.575968    20.52   0.000     47.72661    58.00183
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,094,226)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.76
       Model |  49.3170249         1  49.3170249   Prob > F        =    0.3860
    Residual |  4536.49738        70  64.8071054   R-squared       =    0.0108
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0034
       Total |  4585.81441        71  64.5889353   Root MSE        =    8.0503

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |  -3.592464    4.11818    -0.87   0.386    -11.80592    4.620987
       _cons |   58.16649   2.312388    25.15   0.000     53.55458     62.7784
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,475,878)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.08
       Model |  7.76586073         1  7.76586073   Prob > F        =    0.7762
    Residual |  6672.80841        70  95.3258345   R-squared       =    0.0012
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0131
       Total |  6680.57427        71  94.0925954   Root MSE        =    9.7635

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.294038   4.533749     0.29   0.776     -7.74824    10.33632
       _cons |   49.57863   2.371674    20.90   0.000     44.84847    54.30878
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,475,878)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.34
       Model |  38.1573745         1  38.1573745   Prob > F        =    0.5590
    Residual |  7746.19727        70  110.659961   R-squared       =    0.0049
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0093
       Total |  7784.35464        71  109.638798   Root MSE        =     10.52

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   2.868411   4.884807     0.59   0.559     -6.87403    12.61085
       _cons |    48.8899   2.555318    19.13   0.000     43.79348    53.98632
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,475,878)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.07
       Model |  7.62611236         1  7.62611236   Prob > F        =    0.7936
    Residual |  7735.98435        70  110.514062   R-squared       =    0.0010
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0133
       Total |  7743.61047        71  109.064936   Root MSE        =    10.513

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   1.282342   4.881586     0.26   0.794    -8.453675    11.01836
       _cons |   56.52809   2.553633    22.14   0.000     51.43503    61.62115
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,850,995)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =      0.36
       Model |  51.5252939         1  51.5252939   Prob > F        =    0.5532
    Residual |  10158.7469        70  145.124955   R-squared       =    0.0050
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =   -0.0092
       Total |  10210.2722        71   143.80665   Root MSE        =    12.047

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   3.325274   5.580694     0.60   0.553     -7.80507    14.45562
       _cons |   51.87954   2.950999    17.58   0.000     45.99395    57.76512
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)
(sum of wgt is 3,850,995)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =        72
-------------+----------------------------------   F(1, 70)        =     12.64
       Model |  2227.43711         1  2227.43711   Prob > F        =    0.0007
    Residual |  12332.0339        70  176.171913   R-squared       =    0.1530
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1409
       Total |   14559.471        71  205.062972   Root MSE        =    13.273

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  pctcollege |   21.86351   6.148731     3.56   0.001     9.600253    34.12677
       _cons |   39.17566   3.251369    12.05   0.000     32.69101    45.66032
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(72 real changes made)
(72 real changes made)

. 
. collapse B A Bstate Astate, by(year statea)

. replace B = B+A
(60 real changes made)

. replace Bs = Bs+As
(60 real changes made)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con A year if statea == "IA", col(black))
>         (con B year if statea == "IA", col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 legend(off)
>                 yline(50, lpat(dash))
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xlab(1972(4)2016)
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz))
>                 text(65 2008 "High education", col(gray))
>                 text(40 2000 "Low education")
>                 xtitle("Year")
>                 ytitle("Democratic vote %")
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 5a.pdf", replace
(file figure 5a.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
. local j = 1

. levelsof statea, local(levels)
`"IA"' `"MI"' `"OH"' `"PA"' `"WI"'

. foreach l of local levels {
  2. 
.         di "`l'"
  3.         
.         local text1 text(67 2004 "High education", col(gray))
  4.         local text2 text(40 2000 "Low education")
  5.         if `j' > 1 local text1
  6.         if `j' > 1 local text2
  7.                 
.         #delimit;
delimiter now ;
.         gr tw 
>                 (con As Bs year if statea == "`l'", col(black gray) msym(O s))
>                 ,
>                         subtitle(, fcol(none) lwid(none))
>                         plotregion(style(none))
>                         yline(50, lpat(dash))
>                         ylab(, angle(horiz) nogrid)
>                         xlab(1972(4)2016, angle(45) labsize(small))
>                         xtitle("")
>                         legend(off)
>                         name(g`j', replace)
>                         title(`l')
>                         ;
  8.                                 #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
.         
.         local j = `j' + 1
  9. 
. }
IA
MI
OH
PA
WI

. 
. gr combine g1 g2 g3 g4 g5, imargin(zero) l1title("Democratic vote %") ///
>         b1title("Year")

.         
. gr export "figure 5b.pdf", replace
(file figure 5b.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_anes, clear

. 
. keep if white == 1
(13,856 observations deleted)

. 
. su votedem if year == 2016 & !mi(white) & !mi(college) [aw=weight]

    Variable |     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+-----------------------------------------------------------------
     votedem |   1,841   1724.0485    .4256305   .4945726          0          1

. 
. collapse votedem flip*  [aw=weight], by(college year)

. 
. gen flipadvtg = fliprepdem - flipdemrep
(40 missing values generated)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con votedem year if college == 0, col(black) msym(O))
>         (con votedem year if college == 1, col(gray) msym(s))
>         ,
>                 legend(off)
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 xlab(1952(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 xtitle("Year")
>                 ytitle("Proportion voting Democrat")
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz))
>                 text(0.55 1985 "No college", col(black))
>                 text(0.55 2011 "College", col(gray))
>                 yline(0.5, lpat(dash))
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
.  
. gr export "figure 6.pdf" , replace
(file figure 6.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. *** make counterfactual county-level vote share ***
. 
. gen demvotescf = demvotes
(115,537 missing values generated)

. gen repvotescf = repvotes
(115,537 missing values generated)

. 
. replace demvotescf = (l4.demvoteshare + l4.ddem)/100*(demvotes+repvotes) if fl
> ipdemrep == 1 
(3,107 real changes made)

. replace repvotescf = (repvotes + demvotes) - demvotescf if flipdemrep == 1 
(3,107 real changes made)

. replace repvotescf = (l4.demvoteshare + l4.ddem)/100*(demvotes+repvotes) if fl
> iprepdem == 1
(3,770 real changes made)

. replace demvotescf = (repvotes + demvotes) - demvotescf if fliprepdem == 1 
(3,770 real changes made)

. 
. replace demvotescf = l4.demvotes if (flipdemrep == 1 | fliprepdem == 1) 
(6,875 real changes made)

. replace repvotescf = l4.repvotes if (flipdemrep == 1 | fliprepdem == 1) 
(6,877 real changes made)

. 
. *** aggregate up to state level ***
. 
. keep if year >= 1960 & !mi(stateabbr)
(121,356 observations deleted)

. collapse ev (sum) demvotes repvotes demvotescf repvotescf, by(stateabbr year)

. 
. *** remake dem percent of vote ***
. 
. gen demvoteshare = (demvotes) / (demvotes + repvotes) * 100
(29 missing values generated)

. gen demvotesharecf = (demvotescf) / (demvotescf + repvotescf) * 100
(29 missing values generated)

. 
. *** fix 1960 odd cases ***
. 
. replace demvoteshare = 50.03 if stateabbr=="HI" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvotesharecf = 50.03 if stateabbr=="HI" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvoteshare = 49 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvotesharecf = 49 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvoteshare = 51 if stateabbr=="MN" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvotesharecf = 51 if stateabbr=="MN" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvoteshare = 53 if stateabbr=="NY" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace demvotesharecf = 53 if stateabbr=="NY" & year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 1964 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demvoteshare demvotesharecf {
  2.         replace `x' = 65.91 if stateabbr == "AK" & year == 1964
  3.         replace `x' = 86 if stateabbr == "DC" & year == 1964
  4. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
. replace demvoteshare = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 2016
(1 real change made)

. replace demvotesharecf = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 2016
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** make dem and rep ev ***
. 
. gen demev = .
(765 missing values generated)

. replace demev = ev if demvoteshare > 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
(301 real changes made)

. replace demev = 0 if demvoteshare < 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
(438 real changes made)

. gen demevcf = .
(765 missing values generated)

. replace demevcf = ev if demvotesharecf > 50 & !mi(demvotesharecf)
(269 real changes made)

. replace demevcf = 0 if demvotesharecf < 50 & !mi(demvotesharecf)
(470 real changes made)

. 
. *** fix 1960 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf  {
  2.         replace `x' = `x' - 6 if statea=="AL" & year == 1960
  3.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="MS" & year == 1960
  4. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 1968 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="AL" & year == 1968
  3.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 1968
  4.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="LA" & year == 1968
  5.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="MS" & year == 1968
  6.         replace `x' = 43 if statea=="NY" & year == 1968
  7. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 1972 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="WI" & year == 1972
  3.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 1972
  4. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 1976 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 41 if statea=="NY" & year == 1976
  3.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 1976
  4. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 1980-4, 1992-6, 2004, 2012 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & ///
>                 (year == 1980 | year == 1984 | year == 1992 | ///
>                         year == 1996 | year == 2004 | year == 2012)
  3. }
(6 real changes made)
(6 real changes made)

. 
. *** fix 1988 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 36 if statea=="NY" & year == 1988
  3.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 1988
  4.         replace `x' = `x' - 1 if statea=="WV" & year == 1988
  5. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 2000 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 2000
  3.         replace `x' = 0 if statea=="FL" & year == 2000
  4.         
. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 2008 odd cases ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 2008 
  3.         replace `x' = + 1 if statea=="NE" & year == 2008 
  4.         
. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
. replace demev = demev - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME" // ME
(1 real change made)

. replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME" // ME
(1 real change made)

. replace demev = demev - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA" // faithless WA
(1 real change made)

. replace demevcf = demevcf - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA" // faithless WA
(1 real change made)

. replace demev = demev - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI" // faithless HI
(1 real change made)

. replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI" // faithless HI
(1 real change made)

. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 2016
  3. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** aggregate by year ***
. 
. collapse (sum) demev demevcf, by(year)

. 
. *** one abstention in 2000 ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = `x' - 1 if year == 2000
  3. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. *** one faithless elector in 2004 (OH) ***
. 
. foreach x in demev demevcf {
  2.         replace `x' = `x' - 1 if year == 2004
  3. }
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. gen threshold = .
(15 missing values generated)

. replace threshold = 266 if year == 1952 | year == 1956
(0 real changes made)

. replace threshold = 269 if year == 1960
(1 real change made)

. replace threshold = 270 if year > 1960
(14 real changes made)

. 
. replace demev = demev - threshold
(15 real changes made)

. replace demevcf = demevcf - threshold
(15 real changes made)

. 
. gen demevcflab = string(demevcf ) 

. replace demevcflab = "+" + demevcflab if demevcf > 0
(7 real changes made)

. replace demevcflab = demevcflab + "*" if sign(demevcf)!=sign(demev)
variable demevcflab was str4 now str5
(4 real changes made)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (con demev year, col(gray) msize(tiny))
>         (con demevcf year, col(black) msize(tiny) lpat(solid))
>         //(line demevcf2 year, col(gray))       
>         (sc demevcf year, msym(none) mlab(demevcflab) mlabpos(2) 
>                 mlabsize(small))
>         ,
>                 yline(0, lpat(dash))
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 legend(off)
>                 ylab(, angle(horiz))
>                 xlab(1960(4)2016, angle(45))
>                 ytitle("Democrat Electoral College margin")
>                 xtitle("Year")
>                 text(50 1987 "Actual{&rarr}", col(gray))
>                 text(-100 1997 "{&larr}Counterfactual", col(black))
>                 text(-300 2008 "* denotes a pivotal change", size(small))
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 7.pdf", replace
(file figure 7.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. gen l4demvotes = l4.demvotes
(118,653 missing values generated)

. gen l4repvotes = l4.repvotes
(118,653 missing values generated)

. 
. gen B = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

. gen Q = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

. gen E = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

.         
. forvalues i = 0(1)10 {
  2. 
.         preserve
  3. 
.                 *** make counterfactual county-level vote share ***
. 
.                 gen demvotescf = demvotes
  4.                 gen repvotescf = repvotes
  5. 
.                 drop if mi(pctcollege)
  6.                 drop if mi(demvoteshare)
  7. 
.                 keep if year == 2016
  8. 
.                  _pctile pctcollege [aw=pop] if year == 2016, percentiles(5(5)
> 95)
  9.                 local e = r(r`i')
 10.                 if `i' != 0 {
 11.                         replace demvotescf = l4demvotes if pctcollege <= r(
> r`i')
 12.                         replace repvotescf = l4repvotes if pctcollege <= r(
> r`i')
 13.                 }
 14.                 
.                 *** aggregate up to state level ***
. 
.                 keep if year >= 1960 & !mi(stateabbr)
 15.                 collapse ev (sum) demvotes repvotes demvotescf repvotescf, 
> by(stateabbr year)
 16. 
.                 *** remake dem percent of vote ***
. 
.                 gen demvoteshare = (demvotes) / (demvotes + repvotes) * 100
 17.                 gen demvotesharecf = (demvotescf) / (demvotescf + repvotesc
> f) * 100
 18. 
.                 *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
.                 replace demvoteshare = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 2016
 19.                 replace demvotesharecf = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 20
> 16
 20. 
.                 *** make dem and rep ev ***
. 
.                 gen demev = .
 21.                 replace demev = ev if demvoteshare > 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
 22.                 replace demev = 0 if demvoteshare < 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
 23.                 gen demevcf = .
 24.                 replace demevcf = ev if demvotesharecf > 50 & !mi(demvotesh
> arecf)
 25.                 replace demevcf = 0 if demvotesharecf < 50 & !mi(demvotesha
> recf)
 26. 
.                 *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
.                 replace demev = demev - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME" // ME
 27.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME"
>  // ME
 28.                 replace demev = demev - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA" //
>  faithless WA
 29.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA
> " // faithless WA
 30.                 replace demev = demev - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI" //
>  faithless HI
 31.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI
> " // faithless HI
 32. 
.                 foreach x in demev demevcf {
 33.                         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 2016
 34.                 }
 35. 
.                 *** aggregate by year ***
. 
.                 collapse (sum) demev demevcf, by(year)
 36. 
.                 gen threshold = .
 37.                 replace threshold = 266 if year == 1952 | year == 1956
 38.                 replace threshold = 269 if year == 1960
 39.                 replace threshold = 270 if year > 1960
 40. 
.                 replace demev = demev - threshold
 41.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - threshold
 42. 
.                 gen demevcflab = string(demevcf ) 
 43.                 replace demevcflab = "+" + demevcflab if demevcf > 0
 44.                 replace demevcflab = demevcflab + "*" if sign(demevcf)!=sig
> n(demev)
 45. 
.                 su demevcf
 46.                 local b = r(mean)
 47.                 local q = `i'
 48.                 
.         restore
 49.         
.         replace B = `b' if _n == `i' + 1
 50.         replace Q = `q' if _n == `i' + 1
 51.         replace E = `e' if _n == `i' + 1
 52. 
. }
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -46           .        -46        -46
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(687 real changes made)
(686 real changes made)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(21 real changes made)
(28 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -30           .        -30        -30
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(1,101 real changes made)
(1,099 real changes made)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(23 real changes made)
(26 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
variable demevcflab was str1 now str2
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1           0           .          0          0
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(1,446 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(1,444 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(23 real changes made)
(26 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
variable demevcflab was str1 now str2
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1           0           .          0          0
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(1,713 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(1,711 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(24 real changes made)
(25 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          29           .         29         29
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(1,920 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(1,917 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(24 real changes made)
(25 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          29           .         29         29
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(2,138 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(2,135 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(26 real changes made)
(23 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          53           .         53         53
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(2,324 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(2,322 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(27 real changes made)
(22 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          68           .         68         68
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(2,458 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(2,457 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(27 real changes made)
(22 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          68           .         68         68
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(2,570 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(2,569 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(27 real changes made)
(22 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          68           .         68         68
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(2,654 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(2,653 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(27 real changes made)
(22 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str2 now str3
(1 real change made)
variable demevcflab was str3 now str4
(1 real change made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1          68           .         68         68
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

. 
. keep if !mi(B)
(168,175 observations deleted)

. keep B Q E

. replace Q = Q*5
(10 real changes made)

. 
. gen mylab = ""
(11 missing values generated)

. replace mylab = "{&larr}Actual result" if Q == 0
variable mylab was str1 now str20
(1 real change made)

. replace mylab = "{&larr}If counties {&le} 5th percentile reverted" if Q == 5
variable mylab was str20 now str48
(1 real change made)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (sc B Q if Q == 0, mfcol(black) col(black) msym(O) mlab(mylab)
>                 mlabpos(3) mlabsize(medlarge))
>         (sc B Q if Q != 0, mfcol(white) col(black) msym(O) mlab(mylab)
>                 mlabpos(3) mlabsize(medlarge))
>         , 
>                 yline(0, lpat(dash) lcol(black))
>                 xtitle("Percentile of college education")
>                 xlab(0(5)50)
>                 ytitle("Clinton's electoral college margin")
>                 ylab(-70(20)70, angle(horiz))
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 legend(off)
>                 title("Low education counties")
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 8a.pdf", replace
(file figure 8a.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. use dataset_county, clear

. 
. gen l4demvotes = l4.demvotes
(118,653 missing values generated)

. gen l4repvotes = l4.repvotes
(118,653 missing values generated)

. 
. gen B = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

. gen Q = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

. gen E = .
(168,186 missing values generated)

.         
. forvalues i = 10(1)20 {
  2. 
.         preserve
  3. 
.                 *** make counterfactual county-level vote share ***
. 
.                 gen demvotescf = demvotes
  4.                 gen repvotescf = repvotes
  5. 
.                 drop if mi(pctcollege)
  6.                 drop if mi(demvoteshare)
  7. 
.                 keep if year == 2016
  8.                  _pctile pctcollege [aw=pop] if year == 2016, percentiles(5
> (5)95)
  9.                 local e = r(r`i')
 10.                 if `i' != 21 {
 11.                         replace demvotescf = l4demvotes if pctcollege >= r(
> r`i')
 12.                         replace repvotescf = l4repvotes if pctcollege >= r(
> r`i')
 13.                 }
 14.                 
.                 *** aggregate up to state level ***
. 
.                 keep if year >= 1960 & !mi(stateabbr)
 15.                 collapse ev (sum) demvotes repvotes demvotescf repvotescf, 
> by(stateabbr year)
 16. 
.                 *** remake dem percent of vote ***
. 
.                 gen demvoteshare = (demvotes) / (demvotes + repvotes) * 100
 17.                 gen demvotesharecf = (demvotescf) / (demvotescf + repvotesc
> f) * 100
 18. 
.                 *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
.                 replace demvoteshare = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 2016
 19.                 replace demvotesharecf = 42 if stateabbr=="AK" & year == 20
> 16
 20. 
.                 *** make dem and rep ev ***
. 
.                 gen demev = .
 21.                 replace demev = ev if demvoteshare > 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
 22.                 replace demev = 0 if demvoteshare < 50 & !mi(demvoteshare)
 23.                 gen demevcf = .
 24.                 replace demevcf = ev if demvotesharecf > 50 & !mi(demvotesh
> arecf)
 25.                 replace demevcf = 0 if demvotesharecf < 50 & !mi(demvotesha
> recf)
 26. 
.                 *** fix 2016 odd cases ***
. 
.                 replace demev = demev - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME" // ME
 27.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year== 2016 & statea=="ME"
>  // ME
 28.                 replace demev = demev - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA" //
>  faithless WA
 29.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 4 if year == 2016 & statea=="WA
> " // faithless WA
 30.                 replace demev = demev - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI" //
>  faithless HI
 31.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - 1 if year == 2016 & statea=="HI
> " // faithless HI
 32. 
.                 foreach x in demev demevcf {
 33.                         replace `x' = 3 if statea=="DC" & year == 2016
 34.                 }
 35. 
.                 *** aggregate by year ***
. 
.                 collapse (sum) demev demevcf, by(year)
 36. 
.                 gen threshold = .
 37.                 replace threshold = 266 if year == 1952 | year == 1956
 38.                 replace threshold = 269 if year == 1960
 39.                 replace threshold = 270 if year > 1960
 40. 
.                 replace demev = demev - threshold
 41.                 replace demevcf = demevcf - threshold
 42. 
.                 gen demevcflab = string(demevcf ) 
 43.                 replace demevcflab = "+" + demevcflab if demevcf > 0
 44.                 replace demevcflab = demevcflab + "*" if sign(demevcf)!=sig
> n(demev)
 45. 
.                 su demevcf
 46.                 local b = r(mean)
 47.                 local q = `i'
 48.                 
.         restore
 49.         
.         replace B = `b' if _n == `i' + 1
 50.         replace Q = `q' if _n == `i' + 1
 51.         replace E = `e' if _n == `i' + 1
 52.         
. }
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(453 real changes made, 5 to missing)
(452 real changes made, 5 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -46           .        -46        -46
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(400 real changes made, 4 to missing)
(399 real changes made, 4 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -59           .        -59        -59
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(377 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(376 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(18 real changes made)
(31 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -69           .        -69        -69
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(335 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(334 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(18 real changes made)
(31 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -69           .        -69        -69
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(280 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(279 real changes made, 2 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(18 real changes made)
(31 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -69           .        -69        -69
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(231 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(230 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -56           .        -56        -56
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(172 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(171 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -56           .        -56        -56
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(132 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(131 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -56           .        -56        -56
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(86 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(85 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -56           .        -56        -56
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(42 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(42 real changes made, 1 to missing)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(19 real changes made)
(30 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -56           .        -56        -56
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(115,537 missing values generated)
(120,612 observations deleted)
(10,329 observations deleted)
(34,137 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 observations deleted)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(49 missing values generated)
(20 real changes made)
(29 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 missing value generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

    Variable |        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
     demevcf |          1         -46           .        -46        -46
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(0 real changes made)

. 
. keep if !mi(B)
(168,175 observations deleted)

. keep B Q E

. replace Q = Q*5
(11 real changes made)

. 
. gen mylab = ""
(11 missing values generated)

. replace mylab = "{&larr}Actual result" if Q == 0
(0 real changes made)

. replace mylab = "If counties {&ge} 50th percentile reverted{&rarr}" if Q == 50
variable mylab was str1 now str49
(1 real change made)

. 
. drop if Q == 100
(1 observation deleted)

. 
. #delimit;
delimiter now ;
. gr tw
>         (sc B Q if Q == 0, mfcol(black) col(black) msym(O) mlab(mylab)
>                 mlabpos(3) mlabsize(medlarge))
>         (sc B Q if Q != 0, mfcol(white) col(black) msym(O) mlab(mylab)
>                 mlabpos(9) mlabsize(medlarge))
>         , 
>                 yline(0, lpat(dash) lcol(black))
>                 xtitle("Percentile of college education")
>                 xlab(50(5)95)
>                 ytitle("Clinton's electoral college margin")
>                 ylab(-70(20)70, angle(horiz))
>                 plotregion(style(none))
>                 legend(off)
>                 xscale(rev)
>                 title("High education counties")
>                 ;

. #delimit cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gr export "figure 8b.pdf", replace
(file figure 8b.pdf written in PDF format)

. 
end of do-file

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  replication.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   5 Dec 2018, 17:19:23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
